What the numbers mean for your business this week

The Bank of England is holding the base rate at 3.75%, with the next MPC meeting on 30 July 2026. Markets are divided on direction. Middle East tensions are pushing inflation risks up while weak domestic demand argues for cuts. For small businesses with variable rate debt, don't assume relief is coming quickly. Budget at current rates for the next six months minimum. Consumer price inflation held at 2.8% in May 2026, still above the Bank's 2% target. The MPC voted 7-2 to hold rates at 3.75% on 18 June, with two members pushing for a rise to 4%. Energy prices from the Middle East conflict continue to push inflation above target. Expect the rate to stay on hold until at least July 30. If you're carrying variable rate debt, don't bank on relief before Q4. Sterling has strengthened slightly against the dollar, providing modest relief for businesses importing from the US and Asia. If you source globally, update your landed cost calculations before placing the next order. Small FX movements compound significantly on volume purchases. The employment picture remains challenging. Wage growth is running at 5.9% year on year, well above inflation. Combined with the Employer NI increase to 15% from April 2026 and the National Living Wage rising to £12.71 per hour, labour costs are the single biggest pressure point for most local SMEs. If you haven't reviewed your payroll cost structure this year, do it now. The services PMI fell again to 48.7 in June, down from 49.3 in May, the second consecutive month of contraction and the steepest downturn since January 2023. New orders fell for a third month and firms cut payrolls at the fastest rate since February. Hospitality, transport and professional services all cited weaker demand and rising client risk aversion. If your business is facing weaker enquiries right now, you are not imagining it. The data confirms conditions have deteriorated further this month. Tighten cost discipline and protect cash position.